Bored with Brexit? Wish it would all just go away? It is a common sentiment: “I wish the politicians would just get on with it and stop banging on!” So why am I writing these blog articles? Five parts altogether. Who are they for?
Like many British people living in Spain – and it is the same for expats throughout Europe – I have been left completely up in the air for more than two years. I struggled to understand how the result of the 2016 Referendum on membership of the European Union happened, and starting with information that was available to all before June 2016, I have waded through the constantly changing explanations of what it all means.
When the vote happened I was still working. As the Brexit circus continues, over two years later I am retired. Many expats in Spain are retired and the information about pensions and healthcare after 2019 has been confusing and often conflicting. So because I have more time now, I have been able to consider these matters – working with others across Europe and in the UK – and I hope to provide some helpful explanations.
Brexit needs to be explained simply because the sheer battering of political nonsense has resulted in many people switching off entirely. For most of this year we have been bombarded with wranglings over the Northern Ireland border issue. Politicians of all sides have argued about it like medieval theologians debating how many angels can stand on the head of a pin. Brexit and theology have one thing in common: the man-in-the-street instantly switches off and cannot see how any of it connects with his daily reality!
That is the one and only mention I shall make of Ireland in this explanation of Brexit – I promise you – because if Brexit happens it will be the end of Ulster as part of the UK that’s an end of it. There’s nothing else to say about it.
This presentation of the facts of Brexit will relate to issues that affect you, not Brexit theology. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, you will see how they have lied to you and how your democratic and citizens’ rights have been trampled over. This is the biggest political scam and criminal fraud in modern British history and some people stand to make a huge amount of money from it. How much?
If you are old enough to remember the Great Train Robbery of 1963, two and a half million pounds was stolen (the equivalent of fifty million pounds today) and the 15-strong gang divided it between them. The murky people behind the Great Brexit Robbery are aiming for a bigger prize and some of the key players will be billionaires if they are allowed to get away with it.
This conspiracy – and it is very accurate to call it that – also involves people with a global power agenda: it is designed to destabilise Europe and help Putin and his mafia state knock the UK off the international chessboard so Putin can further expand his empire of state-approved corruption which sucks up 48% of GDP.
In a nutshell, the success of the Brexit referendum can be summed up in one sentence. It was due to an unholy alliance of selfish rich people working with stupid poor people, aided by the cunning Russian mafia-state. They seized a unique opportunity afforded by a moribund British establishment.
The 19th century Houses of Parliament – buildings quite unsuited to a modern democracy – are in complete decay, and the symbolism should be lost on nobody.
The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29th March 2019. This is enshrined in the Royal Assent to the EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Act, which was passed by the House of Commons by 494 votes to 122 and unopposed by the House of Lords. The act fulfils all international and EU law requirements for the UK to leave on 29th March 2019, with or without additional agreements.
How many different options are there?
1. No deal: 40% probability. Under a “no deal” scenario the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019 and the UK will be governed by international (World Trade Organisation) trading laws. There will be a clear separation between UK and EU laws. Tariffs and border checks will commence at midnight on 30th March and there has been much speculation about the likelihood of disruption to the flow of goods and services between the UK and EU. Flights will be grounded and there will be queues of lorries either side of the Channel.
2. Canada+ : The UK makes a definitive split from all EU arrangements and institutions, including the single market, customs union and European Courts of Justice. The UK is able to set its own rules and regulations and is able to strike bilateral trade deals with other countries Against this background, and with free movement ending after 2021, many argue that only this outcome is consistent with the vote to leave the EU in that it represents the genuine break with EU rules and institutions entailed by leaving the EU.
3. Soft Brexit: The UK keeps a much closer alignment with the EU, potentially remaining in the single market and/or the customs union. Supporters of this type of Brexit arrangement argue that it is likely to be less disruptive to the UK economy and it probably avoids the need for a hard border. However, the UK could miss out on the ability to strike bilateral trade deals.
4. Chequers: This arrangement was proposed to bridge the gap between “hard” and “soft” Brexit but since it has been rejected by just about everyone, it is hardly worth saying any more about it.
As pointed out time and time again, by economists, by business leaders, by trade negotiators, the Bank of England, the science lobby, (etc. etc.) NONE of the above four options for leaving the EU presents a better economic future than the arrangement we have had for forty years: staying in the EU.
That is why many people – now the majority of the voting public – believe that the last option is the only sensible one… No Brexit!
5. No Brexit: a “People’s Vote” reversing UK’s departure from the EU. This would require Parliament to overturn the Article 50 withdrawal notice. According to various pundits, this is currently the least probable outcome. Nevertheless there is a crowdfunded legal enquiry going on right now at the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to determine whether or not Article 50 is reversible, in anticipation of a successful second referendum win for Remain. A decision is expected by Christmas.
There are various problems however: how would a referendum be precipitated; how could it take place before 29 March 2019; and what social consequences would there be in terms of angry Leavers feeling thwarted if as hoped the vote went to Remain? The Constitution Unit published an important document on 9 October 2018 The Mechanics of a Further Referendum on Brexit. The report suggests five scenarios in which a second referendum could be triggered. (The full document is available as a download here.)
To finish. THIS…
What an utter hypocrite and a fraud. (By the way, don’t they teach grammar at Eton? The plural is “referenda”.)
Corrections and omissions are invited.
Readers, if you see something that needs correction or feel an important point is not included here, please tell me in a comment. I am trying to write something here which helps people understand Brexit and I am aiming for truth and accuracy.